Modeling impacts of broad-scale plantation forestry on ecosystem services in the past 60 years and for the future

•Ten ecosystem services were evaluated to assess the effects of plantation forestry.•Three services like amenity would be greatly reduced by replacing natural forests.•Other services showed small changes or even increase when stand age is considered.•Services can change greatly during and immediately after plantations establishment.•Impacts can be alleviated by avoiding harvest on valley floors and steep slopes. Although forestry plantations dominate landscapes in many parts of the world, effects of plantation forestry on various ecosystem services (ESs) remain unknown. Here, we modeled 10 forest ESs as functions of forest type (natural forest vs. plantation), stand age, and environmental covariates to systematically evaluate ESs of plantation landscapes in central Japan. Our models showed that although three ESs including biodiversity conservation and amenity service are greatly reduced by replacing natural forests with plantations, other ESs show small changes or even increase when stand age is accounted for. Five ESs increase and four decrease with stand age in both forest types. Model application to the study area in the past 60 years suggested that many ESs were greatly reduced when or immediately after vast plantations were established. Two ESs (biodiversity conservation and amenity service) have not sufficiently recovered despite forests’ reaching maturity. ESs dependent on early-successional stage showed precipitous recent declines. Scenario analysis suggests that increasing timber production while avoiding harvesting steep slopes would not increase landslide susceptibility. Furthermore, restoration of natural forests in flat areas near roads would greatly improve biodiversity conservation and amenity services. Landscape management will determine whether plantations deliver net benefits to current and future generations.