Upstream subsidy or downstream subsidy? A quantitative analysis of credit subsidy in China

We construct a multi-industry general equilibrium model to study the effects of industrial credit policies. This model is characterized by firm heterogeneity, credit constraints, and production network. We calibrate the model using data from China and show that downstream industries face much tighter credit constraints than upstream industries. However, the key finding of our model is that upstream credit subsidy is more effective than downstream subsidy in increasing aggregate output and capital stock. The input–output linkages between upstream and downstream industries are the driving force behind this outcome. Our research also suggests that credit subsidy might encourage firms to use more capital and less labor in production. We extend the benchmark model to several industries and show that our key result is robust. •Heterogeneous-firm model with credit constraint and production network.•We calibrate the model to data from China’s manufacturing industries.•Downstream firms face tighter credit constraints than upstream firms.•Upstream credit subsidy is more effective than downstream subsidy.•Input–output linkages explain the effectiveness of upstream subsidy.