The economic impacts of living habitat changes in the Virginia Middle Peninsula, Chesapeake Bay

•Living habitats, crucial for fisheries, are threatened by anthropogenic stressors.•An integrated socio-ecological modeling approach predicted economic impacts.•Increased living habitat coverage positively influenced commercial harvests.•The economic impacts of the commercial fishery predominantly remained local.•Ongoing Eelgrass declines could mitigate economic gains from Oyster restoration. Living habitats support ecologically and commercially important species but are threatened by anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. The populations of two living habitats in the Chesapeake Bay, Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea virginica) and Eelgrass (Zostera marina), are depleted compared to historical levels, but recent Oyster restoration efforts have created new reef habitat and enhanced existing Oyster reefs. Other animals (e.g., commercially important fish and invertebrates) consume organisms that associate with these living habitats, suggesting the regional economies that rely on the commercial fishing industry may be impacted by changes in living habitat coverage. Ecosystem models were developed for two rivers that have undergone Oyster restoration in the Virginia Middle Peninsula, and simulations were conducted to estimate the potential influence that changes to living habitats may have on commercial fisheries harvests. Additionally, commercial fishers were interviewed to document expenditures needed to link ecological model estimates to an economic input-output model via IMPLAN that estimated the regional economic impacts of these changes. Increases to Oyster and Eelgrass populations are predicted to enhance commercial fisheries populations and in turn, harvests, while decreases to living habitats are predicted to have negative effect on fisheries harvests. The driving factor behind landed value trends is changes with the lucrative Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus) fishery. The primary expenses of watermen are repairs/maintenance, fuel, and bait, but greater than 37 % of the annual revenue is retained as proprietor and crew income. Oyster reef restoration alone is predicted to increase the regional economic impact of the commercial fishing industry by $1.1 M yr-1 and support 12 more full-time jobs at the end of a 20-year simulation. Oyster restoration in combination with a continued decline of Eelgrass led to a negligible increase (∼$150 K yr-1) in the regional economic impact. Eelgrass restoration to the current management goal without the influence of