The response and simulation of ecosystem services value to land use/land cover in an oasis, Northwest China

•Land use/land cover (LULC) changed in 2000 in Zhangye oasis.•Ecosystem services value (ESV) stopped falling in 2000 and began to rise.•Geographical and socio-economic factors revised the coefficients of ESV.•The FLUS model can better simulate LULC in oasis. The oasis ecosystem is integral to the socio-economic stability and development in arid areas. This study illuminates the relationship between land use/land cover (LULC) and ecosystem services value (ESV) in Zhangye oasis from 1980 to 2015 and predicts changes in ESV in 2030. The coefficients for assessing ESV and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model for LULC simulation were modified by introducing natural geography and socio-economic data. The study found that the patterns of LULC and ESV in Zhangye oasis changed dramatically in 2000. Forest, grassland, and wetland were severely damaged due to the weak awareness of environmental protection, resulting in a significant decline in the ESV before 2000. Thanks to a number of ecological projects that have been put into practice and the improvement in climate conditions since 2000, the ESV has started to recover. The FLUS model reasonably predicted the LULC in 2015, and the kappa coefficient was 0.8991 after comparing with the actual LULC in 2015. On this basis, the land use scenario in 2030 is predicted, and the value of ecosystem services is estimated. The results show that the value of ecosystem services will continue to increase. This study can guide future land-use planning and raise public awareness of the need for ecosystem protection.