A Stochastic Economic Framework for Partitioning Biosecurity Surveillance Resources

Effective biosecurity systems are important for protecting trade and the environment from the introduction of exotic pests and diseases, particularly as the movement of goods and people increases worldwide. But systems are complex and the optimal division of resources between biosecurity operations is difficult to determine. In this paper we formulate tractable, stochastic, bio-economic models to guide the optimisation of cost-efficiency in decisions concerning biosecurity operations. In particular, to guide a tradeoff between effort afforded to preventing the introduction of pests and diseases, and post-border surveillance, although the approach has general relevance. The models offer a practical means of optimising resource partitioning, designed to transfer easily between disparate settings and a range of pest-types, and to enable the incorporation of uncertainty. For highly complex problems, tractable frameworks are not always available or efficient. However, using an application to Asian gypsy moth trapping and reference to applications in the literature, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is relevant, is straightforward to apply, and provides a comprehensive analysis for decision-makers. •We formulate a stochastic bio-economic framework to guide biosecurity resourcing decisions under uncertainty.•An optimal economic trade-off between border intervention and post-border surveillance reduces risks and costs.•Closed-form analytical equations for the distribution, expected costs and variance are provided.•The formulation agrees with published simulation results.