Vulnerability assessment of forest ecosystem based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity in the Valmiki Tiger Reserve, India: A geospatial analysis

Forests are becoming increasingly vulnerable to a range of climatic and non-climatic stressors. Thus, the forest vulnerability assessment is crucial for identifying potential risks and enhancing forest resilience. The present study attempts to explore the forest vulnerability in the protected area of Valmiki Tiger Reserve (VTR), India. A forest ecosystem vulnerability index (FEVI) was constructed using its three components (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and site-specific indicators. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices were integrated to prepare the forest vulnerability map. The map was validated through the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and confusion metrics and found reliable. The results revealed that of the total area of the Reserve, the largest area was found under moderate vulnerability (48.36%), followed by high vulnerability (32.28%) and low vulnerability (19.36%). Madanpur, Raghia, and the lower part of Harnatanr and Chiutaha were identified as the most vulnerable ranges in the VTR. High exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity were attributed to high forest vulnerability in the VTR. Thus, continuous monitoring and devising effective forest management strategies are essential for reducing vulnerability and enhancing the resilience of the VTR. Urgent policy interventions are also required for promoting ecotourism and minimizing the dependency of communities on forest. The systematic framework employed in the present study may be applied to diverse geographical regions for identifying vulnerable sites and suggesting effective conservation and restoration strategies. •Vulnerability assessment prioritizes ecosystems for conservation and management.•Forest ecosystem vulnerability was assessed using IPCC holistic framework.•Site-specific indicators were integrated for each component of vulnerability.•Analysis identified the most and least vulnerable sites in the forest reserve.•Effective policy measures are essential to safeguard forests from risks and threats.