Using hierarchical models to compare the sensitivity of metabarcoding and qPCR for eDNA detection

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling—the detection of intra- or extra-cellular DNA in environmental samples—is a rapid and sensitive survey method for detecting aquatic species. Single-species detection methods (typically based on PCR or LAMP) have been shown to be more sensitive for detecting target species than multi-species detection methods, such as metabarcoding. However, previous studies have generally only compared these two eDNA detection approaches for a single target species and have used different methodological and statistical approaches. Here we present a comparison of single- and multi-species eDNA detection methods, drawing on two published case studies (one fish, one amphibian) and two new extensive datasets on a freshwater mammal (the platypus). To ensure consistent conclusions regarding the sensitivity of each eDNA method, we use the same hierarchical site occupancy-detection model for each dataset, incorporating uncertainty at the site, water sample, and technical replicate level. Overall, qPCR achieved higher detection probabilities than metabarcoding across species and datasets. However, differences in sensitivity between detection methods varied depending on methodological decisions concerning what constitutes a true positive detection (i.e., qPCR and metabarcoding thresholds). The decision as to which eDNA detection method to use should always be influenced by the study aims, but our results suggest that single-species detection methods based on qPCR may be preferable when the aim is to achieve a high detection probability for target species. •A hierarchical Bayesian approach to consistently compare eDNA detection methods.•Detection probability was compared between qPCR and metabarcoding.•qPCR was more sensitive compared to metabarcoding across 3 species and 4 study designs.•Methodological decisions such as thresholds impacted detection probability.•There are trade-offs between the need for multi-species information and sensitivity.