Movable oil content evaluation of lacustrine organic-rich shales: Methods and a novel quantitative evaluation model

Lacustrine shale oil resources are abundant and play important roles in maintaining a sustainable economy. The uncertainty in the movable oil content of organic-rich shales with strong heterogeneity is the greatest risk in their exploration. Various methods exist for movable oil content evaluation, but they present many challenges, especially insufficient accuracy, complicated test procedures, high costs, and limited application. In this study, an extensive review of the theories, techniques, and methods of movable oil content evaluation and their merits and demerits for lacustrine shales were conducted. Then, taking the lacustrine shale of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation (50.5–33 Ma) of the Dongpu Depression, Bohai Bay Basin, as an example, the multi-step Rock-Eval pyrolysis method combined with light hydrocarbon calibration was utilized to evaluate the movable oil content Subsequently, key factors controlling movable oil content were investigated, including organic matter richness, type, and thermal maturity, quartz content, clay mineral content, pore volume, and specific surface area. Both the systematic cluster analysis results and regression standardization coefficients indicate that the total organic carbon content, pore volume, and specific surface area are the main controls on movable oil content. Finally, a quantitative estimation model for movable oil content was established and validated using a statistical product and service solutions modeling. This study improves the understanding of shale oil enrichment laws and provides a novel and practical quantitative model for movable oil content estimation in lacustrine organic-rich shales across the world.