Predicting protein shelf lives from mean first passage times

[Display omitted] •The Mean First Passage Time (MFPT) of protein aggregation is evaluated theoretically.•Age of appearance of aggregation-related diseases is obtained from the MFPT and survival probability.•The calculated survival probability is in good agreement with the clinical data.•MFPT is found to be practically independent of the critical number of misfolded contacts. Protein aggregation is investigated theoretically through a multistep equilibria that involves protein turnover, misfolding, aggregation and degradation. The Mean First Passage Time (MFPT) of aggregation is evaluated within the framework of Chemical Master Equation and pseudo first order kinetics with appropriate boundary conditions. The MFPT of protein aggregation is found to be practically independent of the total number of contacts and the critical number of misfolded contacts. The age of appearance of aggregation-related diseases is obtained from the survival probability and the MFPT results, which matches with those reported in the literature. The calculated survival probability is in good agreement with the available clinical data of Parkinson’s disease.