Experimental based time-dependent reliability assessment of corrosion initiation for PC girders in frozen marine environment

•The long-term exposure experiments and in-house tests are combined to propose a probabilistic chloride diffusion model of frozen marine environment.•The evolution law of concrete surface chloride concentration is determined and the age reduction factor calculation method considering cementitious material composition is provided.•A time-dependent reliability assessment method of corrosion initiation of PC girders in frozen marine environment is developed. Chloride induced corrosion is the main reason for the deterioration of concrete structures in marine environments, and the prediction of corrosion initiation life is one of the greatest challenges for preventative maintenance. To conduct a corrosion initiation assessment of PC girders in frozen marine environment and support preventative maintenance, a time-dependent reliability assessment method is developed. Long-term exposure experiments and in-house tests are combined to calibrate the chloride diffusion model, and then a probabilistic diffusion model is proposed based on the randomness of the key model parameters. Through the analysis of the target reliability index of corrosion initiation, the risk-function based time-dependent reliability assessment method is developed. Finally, a case study is introduced to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is found that the surface chloride concentration on concrete structures in frozen marine environments increases at the beginning of service life and it tends to be stabilize when the service time is around 9–10 years. The age reduction factor of chloride diffusion can be described as the linear function of cementitious composition. The target reliability indices of corrosion initiation are suggested as 2.46, 1.50 and 1.13 for the referenced periods of 1, 10 and 20 years. The corrosion initiation life is very sensitive to the tensile stress level of concrete, and it decreases linearly with the increasement in tensile stress when the stress is not higher than 2 MPa.