Small-scale LNG supply chain optimization for LNG bunkering in Turkey

•Multiple Regression, ARIMA Forecasting, MILP methods have been utilized to find optimum LNG bunkering model in Turkey case.•Ship-to-ship small-scale LNG delivery has been evaluated under three scenarios and sixteen different cases.•Breakeven point as LNG bunker price has been determined based on minimum cost objective function. LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) provides a viable option to comply with emission control measures as an alternative marine fuel. Supply chain optimization is critical for LNG bunkering development in the maritime context as it requires high capital-expenditure. This study proposes a model for optimizing the ship-to-ship LNG bunkering supply chain. The related problem is defined as a Multiple Period Maritime Fleet Size and Routing Problem. The proposed mathematical model has been solved for various demand scenarios obtained by multiple regression and forecasting as a case study of ship-to-ship LNG bunker deliveries in Turkey. The model presents an optimal solution as a tactical and strategic decision-making tool, finds the number and size of the LNG bunker barges and the optimum allocation of the barges and the distribution network within a ship-to-ship bunkering framework. Moreover, it provides a commercial framework for shipowners and suppliers by determining the breakeven point for investment decisions.