RISE-UP: Resilience in urban planning for climate uncertainty-empirical insights and theoretical reflections from case studies in Amsterdam and Mumbai

Climate change is one of the main drivers of uncertainty in urban planning, but only a few studies systematically address these uncertainties, especially in the long term. Urban resilience theory presents principles to manage uncertainty but largely focuses on individual urban systems rather than complex interdependent dynamics. Further, most planning and resilience theory originates from the Global North and is unsuitable for capturing the dynamics of the Global South. This study uses an exploratory multi-case analysis towards developing an enhanced understanding of urban planning for climate uncertainty. We argue that long-term urban planning for climate uncertainty can benefit from systematically integrating resilience principles. We use a two-step qualitative research approach: (1) To propose a conceptual framework connecting urban resilience principles, approaches to urban planning under uncertainty and planning responses in urban systems. (2) To use the conceptual framework to analyse climate-related planning responses in two contrasting case studies in the Global North (GN) and Global South (GS) (Amsterdam and Mumbai). We conclude with four propositions towards an enhanced understanding of urban planning for climate uncertainty by drawing upon the empirical insights from the two case studies. [Display omitted] •We use multi-case analysis to assess climate-related planning in Global North and Global South.•We propose a conceptual framework connecting resilience, uncertainty planning, and urban systems.•Lack of flexibility is a critical challenge for long-term planning in the Global North and South.•The urgency of climate change is recognized. But key concepts of resilience or planning under uncertainty are only partially recognized or implemented in long-term planning.•We present four propositions towards an enhanced understanding of urban planning for climate uncertainty.