The Russia–Ukraine conflict and the amplitude of chaos in the prices of Natural Gas commodities

This work analyses the time evolution of the amplitude of chaos for the Historical Prices of the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) commodities, both before and during the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Methods include Phase Space Reconstruction in Four-dimensional Euclidean Spaces from time series and Spearman Correlation between chaos intensities, elapsed time and prices. At the start of the military actions, the intensity of chaos increases for both gas commodities, where TTF presents a peak with larger magnitudes than UNG. The geopolitical crisis marks the beginning of a correlation between the chaos of TTF and UNG prices beyond TTF and elapsed time. •This Methodology employs chaotic time series in the reconstruction scheme.•A comparison between TTF and UNG gas commodities is of interest to investors.•The chaos analyses cover periods before and during the armed conflict.