Implications of future land-use/cover pattern change on landslide susceptibility at a national level: A scenario-based analysis in Romania

[Display omitted] •The potential future evolution of LS in response to LUC changes in Romania was assessed.•The LS change was estimated by integrating LUC scenarios, predicted by the CLUEs model.•At the national level, an overall net slight decrease of LS is expected until 2075.•LUC transitions to forests have the largest contribution to the decrease of LS.•An appropriate land management may significantly contribute to reducing the LS level. Land-use/cover (LUC) change is a global change forcing with important impacts on landslides, which highlights the need to evaluate the potential future evolution of these hazards under future LUC scenarios. Accordingly, the current paper provides a first national-level exploration on the possible effects of LUC pattern change on landslide susceptibility (LS) in Romania, shedding light on the evolution of one of Europe’s landslide hotspot countries as well as one of the territories significantly affected by recent LUC change, especially after the fall of the communist regime. Two countrywide future LS maps were modelled for 2075, by applying a previously developed national scale-adapted LS empirical procedure, integrating therein two existing long-term LUC pattern forecasts and assuming no change for the other landslide controlling factors. The estimated future LS maps were then compared to the current LS zonation using a pixel-based analysis to estimate the contribution of LUC class transitions to the LS variation in time. The quantitative examination of LS changes suggests an overall net slight decrease at the national level under both scenarios (on an average of 7.3% of the LUC change area), with more significant regional variations. The location and extent of the estimated potential LUC transitions reflect themselves into a clear influence on the future LS level manifesting itself, on average, over 7.1% of the country’s area. The analysis demonstrates that the expected increase in the forest-covered area brings the most important contribution to the decrease of the LS level. An average of 44.2% of the total LS decrease area was mainly predicted by the transitions from pastures and natural grasslands/scrubs to forests, and 11.4% by that from heterogeneous agricultural areas to forests. Conversely, transitions to pastures and natural grasslands resulted in the most important contribution to the increase of the LS level (52.2%). Transitions among other agricultural lands resulted in slight susceptibility variations or