Evaluation and simulation of landscape evolution and its ecological effects under vegetation restoration in the northern sand prevention belt, China

[Display omitted] •Ecological restoration programs have brought remarkable landscape evolution.•Effects of different vegetation restoration measures were distinguished.•Ecological benefits of vegetation restoration were offset by human activities.•A reduction in bush led to a remarkable loss in the ESV.•Desertification control showed a great potential to reverse ESV loss. Vegetation restoration has brought about remarkable landscape evolution in arid regions, and it is of great significance to evaluate its ecological benefits. However, the landscape evolution and ecological effects of different vegetation restoration measures have yet to be distinguished, and their future trends remain to be revealed, especially from the perspective of fine vegetation classification. In this study, we evaluated the ecosystem service value (ESV) of the northern sand prevention belt (NSPB) based on the fine land use/cover classification and benefit transfer method. Then, we analyzed changes in landscape and ESV induced by vegetation restoration from 2000 to 2015 and designed 9 future vegetation restoration scenarios to improve ESV. The results showed that the built-up area and dry farmland expanded by 35.37% and 3.48%, respectively, and paddy field and bush decreased by 19.00% and 6.80% from 2000 to 2015, respectively. Total ESV decreased by 0.62% (1.76 billion USD) during 2000–2015. The reduction in bush led to a loss of 0.85% (2.41 billion USD) in ESV. Vegetation restoration involved grassland restoration (1.99 million ha), bush restoration (0.26 million ha), and forestland restoration (0.18 million ha), which increased ESV by 1.21, 1.17, and 4.29 billion USD, respectively. Anthropogenic disturbance resulted in the loss of 2.97 million ha of vegetation and 9.23 billion USD in ESV. Current vegetation restoration in the NSPB is insufficient to counteract the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on ESV. Riparian vegetation buffer and grain for green scenarios have limited ecological benefits. Desertification control scenarios have the potential to increase ESV by at least 8.94% (25.12 billion USD) and to reverse ESV losses. Bush and grassland can be used instead of forestland for restoration in arid regions. This study can provide important support for the formulation and adjustment of landscape restoration in arid regions.