Changes in area and water volume of the Aral Sea in the arid Central Asia over the period of 1960–2018 and their causes

•The area of the Aral Sea shrank by 60,156.50 km2 (about 87.85%).•The total loss of water volume was approximately 1,000.51 km3.•Glacier mass loss in the basin was much larger than lake volume variation.•Human activities especially damming and irrigation are the driving factors. The Aral Sea (68,478 km2 in 1960) was the world’s fourth largest inland lake in 1960s. However, it shrank sharply over the past six decades, and its changes caused a series of severe environmental issues. In this paper, we reconstructed its variations over the period of 1960 to 2018 by using observation data and remote sensing data, and analyzed their influencing factors. The results show that the area of the Aral Sea shrank dramatically by 60,156.50 km2 (about 87.85%) and the total loss of water volume was approximately 1,000.51 km3 over the study period. In 1986, the Aral Sea broken up into the south and the north parts. Since then, the South Aral Sea has shrunk continuously, while both the area and the water volume of the North Aral Sea have had a little change and shown a very slightly increasing trend. Through comprehensive analysis, it was found that human activities, especially damming and irrigation, are the dominant factors influencing the long-term variation of the Aral Sea. The increased precipitation and glacier meltwater could not compensate for the water loss of the Aral Sea.