Canopy cover mediates the effects of a decadal increase in time since fire on arboreal birds

Wildfires impact animal populations directly, and indirectly through alteration of forest habitats. Recovery of populations and habitat structure occurs over time since fire, but knowledge is lacking about the relative importance of these processes as drivers of the occurrence of birds in fire-prone forests. We aimed to determine the extent to which canopy cover mediates the effects of a decadal increase in time since fire on the richness and occurrence of canopy bird species. We established sites at either short (5 years) or mid-range (16 years) time since fire in montane dry sclerophyll forests of south-eastern Australia. Canopy cover estimates were derived from airborne LiDAR data. Birds were surveyed using acoustic recorders, with the resulting data analyzed using Bayesian mediation models to partition direct (population processes) and indirect (canopy cover) effects of time since fire on canopy birds. The predictive accuracy of models representing partial mediation (direct and indirect effects) and complete mediation (indirect effects only) were then compared. The direct effects of wildfire on birds were minimal between five and 16 years since fire. Instead, indirect effects prevailed, with species richness and the occurrence of most canopy species increasing as canopy cover regenerated over time since fire. As these forests transition from short to mid-range time since fire, ongoing increases in canopy cover are of primary importance for birds. We recommend an approach to managing avian diversity that incorporates canopy cover in fire planning to optimize the retention of dwindling amounts of older forest under climate change. •Drivers of avian responses to fire were partitioned using Bayesian mediation models.•Canopy cover was derived from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) point clouds.•Avian responses to increased canopy cover through time since fire were positive.•The direct effects of wildfires had minimal influence on birds after five years.•Incorporation of canopy structure in fire management for birds is recommended.