Distinguishing the effects of land use policies on ecosystem services and their trade-offs based on multi-scenario simulations

Ecosystem services (ESs) trade-offs are directly influenced by land use change which resulted from urbanization and ecological restoration globally or locally. However, the impacts of land use policies on ESs and their trade-offs are always interacted, needing further distinguishment. In this study we simulated grain production and water purification of the Dongting Lake Basin under different land use scenarios in 2035, and explored the impact of land use policies on ESs and their trade-offs. The results showed that returning farmland to forest land was the main factor, which would lead to 3.19% decrease in grain production and 8.13% increase in water purification. Returning farmland to waterbody would also result in a reduction of grain production (−0.85%) slightly more than the improvement of water purification (0.37%). However, the impact of urbanization on ESs would be less but spatially heterogeneous. It is worth noting that returning farmland to forest land would increase the trade-off potential and intensity, while urbanization and returning farmland to waterbody could weaken both trade-off indices. This study provides a scenario approach to distinguishing land use policies’ impact on ecosystem services trade-offs. •The impacts of land use policies on ES trade-offs were distinguished.•Returning farmland to forest land was the main factor affecting ecosystem services.•The trade-off potential and intensity under FP scenario was the highest.•Returning farmland to forest land increased ES trade-off potential and intensity.•Returning farmland to waterbody and urbanization weakened both trade-off indices.