Global value chains participation and carbon emissions: Evidence from Belt and Road countries

•GVCs position is negatively correlated with carbon emissions in B&R countries.•Forward participation degree upgrading reduce more CO2 than the backward mode.•Developed countries reduce more CO2 emissions with increasing in GVCs participation.•Influence paths of scale, structure and technology effects perform differently. This study attempts to investigate the impact of global value chains (GVCs) participation on carbon emissions in Belt and Road (B&R) countries. First, this study analyzes the carbon emissions and GVCs participation features of 33 B&R countries during 2005–2016. Second, the impact of GVCs position on carbon emissions are investigated, as well as considering the GVCs participation modes and national heterogeneity. Finally, the influence paths are discussed through scale, structure and technology effects. The main results are: (1) Carbon emissions grow fast from 100079.36 Mt to 147796.42 Mt in 2005–2016; most B&R countries are located at backward GVCs positions. (2) GVCs position has robust and negative correlation with carbon emissions. (3) The increase of forward GVCs participation degree would reduce more carbon emissions than that of backward mode. (4) Developed countries could reduce more carbon emissions with increase in GVCs position and forward GVCs participation degree; deepening in backward GVCs participation would reduce carbon emissions in developed countries, while increase it in developing countries. (5) GVCs position upgrading could reduce carbon emissions through scale and structure effects, while forward and backward GVCs participation mainly work through technology effect. Policy implications on reducing carbon emissions in B&R countries are finally suggested.