Assessment of new solar radiation nowcasting methods based on sky-camera and satellite imagery

This work proposes and evaluates methods for extending the forecasting horizon of all-sky imager (ASI)-based solar radiation nowcasts and estimating the uncertainty of these predictions. In addition, we evaluated procedures for improving the temporal resolution and latency of satellite-imagery-derived solar nowcasts. Based on these contributions, we assessed the reliability of ASIs and satellite-derived solar radiation nowcasts, with 1-min time-resolution and up-to-90-min ahead. The study was conducted in a location in Southern Spain using a set of cloudy days, specifically selected as representative of the most challenging conditions regarding solar radiation nowcasting. The results reveal that the use of ASI-based models provide low benefits compared to the use of satellite-based models for point solar radiation nowcasting. Given the frequency of occurrence of the different sky types in the study area, the results suggest that the use of a simple smart persistence algorithm, in combination with a low-resolution satellite nowcasting model could be an adequate choice, avoiding the challenges associated with the use of ASIs. •New methods for extending forecasting horizon of sky camera based solar nowcasting.•Sky camera solar nowcasting uncertainty assessed.•One minute time resolution satellite-imagery model solar nowcasting.•Sky camera provides low added value compared to the use of satellite imagery.•Smart-Persistence plus satellite-imagery models as the best option for solar nowcasting.