The shares method for revealing latent tourism demand

This paper develops an intuitive methodology to reveal latent tourism demand. The aim is to quantify its scale by distinguishing the pair of origin-destination and the kind of tourism. The methodology starts measuring the market size that depends on origin population size and their willingness to participate in outbound tourism. Additionally, it takes into account the varying preferences of each origin population for different kinds of tourism. Finally, it compares the current market share of tourism with the expected market share, which is estimated using a random parameter logit model. The study draws on data from EU-28 countries. It provides indicators to select target markets to be strengthened and design strategies based on better air connectivity or oriented marketing campaigns. •The paper provides an intuitive method to estimate latent tourism demand.•The method can identify and quantify potential target markets.•It distinguishes four kinds of tourism.•It can aid with marketing and segmentation strategies.•Market shares are estimated with a random parameter logit model.