Winter wheat production on the Guanzhong Plain of Northwest China under projected future climate with SimCLIM

•The precipitation would normally increase in Guanzhong Plain.•Significant increase of ET would occur in the studied area.•The climate change will have positive effect on winter wheat yield based on rainfed scenario in the future. The Guanzhong Plain in China is particularly sensitive to climate change owing to its fragile ecological environment and geographic features. As a result, climate change is affecting the production of winter wheat in this area. In this study, we used SimCLIM (climate model) with the CSM-CERES-Wheat model to determine the impact of the climate change on the projected agricultural production of winter wheat in the Guanzhong Plain for 2020, 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100 projections. Scenarios for three global climate models (GCMs) (BCC-CSM-1, CSIRO-MK3−6-0 and GFDL-CM3) and one greenhouse gas concentration pathway (RCP 4.5) were chosen. The results showed a warming trend in the Guanzhong Plain for both maximum and minimum temperature for the different GCMs. Although rainfall varied, the projected rainfall showed an increasing trend for February, June and December, and a decreasing trend for April, September and October. The solar radiation for the Baoji and Weinan area showed an upward trend, while the solar radiation in Wugong was greatly reduced. The maturity date of winter wheat for the three locations was reduced by 2.3–14.9 days compared with the reference year for different climate change scenarios. Water requirements of the winter wheat for the three locations under different GCMs were all increased compared with the reference year. Overall, winter wheat yield in Wugong and Weinan increased for the different GCMs scenarios during the 21st century.