Oil palm growers' prospects for sustainable oil palm production. A case study from Campeche, Mexico

A Social-Ecological System (SES) approach to the analysis of agricultural systems enables consideration of the complexity and interdependencies of social, economic, and ecological components of a region. We used such an approach to understand the barriers and levers to the sustainable development of a palm oil production system from the growers' perspective. The study was conducted in Southeast Mexico, where Federal and State governments from 1998 to 2018, promoted oil palm cultivation to reduce imports and meet domestic demand for palm oil. However, after 2018, public funding for oil palm ceased, at a time when the oldest plantations are approaching the end of their productive lives. At this crossroads, the questions that emerge are: will plantations be renewed by oil palm growers? What are the conditions for sustainable palm oil production in the future? We sought to identify oil palm growers' constraints and concerns regarding continued production and explore potential pathways to a sustainable future. We used a non-probabilistic sampling technique to conduct a survey of 41 respondents and 43 semi-structured interviews with oil palm growers between May and July 2021. The sample included seven rural communities. In September 2021, we organized focus groups with 29 producers and inhabitants in three of the seven communities using a participatory modeling approach to develop current and desired collective conceptual models of the SES. These models were integrated and validated in the field with 11 farmers in July 2022. The conceptual models revealed the local history of oil palm development and the difficulties that raised from it, they also underlined limitations of the oil palm growers to maintain their activity including renewing the plantation, such as the lack of technical support, producer organizations with management problems, and widespread perception of Government abandonment. Despite these challenges, farmers are willing to continue oil palm production by reorganizing their production system and fostering new linkages, especially with the industry. Participatory modeling of SES with oil palm growers' enabled incorporation of diverse knowledge and different understandings of the problem while outlining the emergence of a possible future for sustainable oil palm production systems. The models presented can be used to identify points of convergence, increase coordination and dialogue among stakeholders to address common challenges and move towards