Analysis of perceived robustness, adaptability and transformability of Spanish extensive livestock farms under alternative challenging scenarios

Extensive livestock farms in the EU operate in a context of increasing market liberalization and competition, changing consumer patterns and decreasing meat consumption, and increasing climate change-related risks. In turn, EU policy calls for better supporting extensive systems due to their numerous socio-ecological benefits and aims to improve the resilience of extensive livestock farms. The research question underlying this paper is: which resilience capacities may help livestock farmers deal with different types of challenges? The specific research objectives are: 1) to quantify the resilience capacities of robustness, adaptability and transformability and the challenges as perceived by farmers; 2) to identify the main challenges affecting the perceived resilience capacities; and 3) to evaluate how perceived resilience capacities perform under alternative scenarios. The paper relies on the use of data from a survey of 120 cattle and sheep farmers in Spain to study the latent property of resilience through farmers' perception. The methodology consists of mixed statistical methods to address the three specific objectives. First, descriptive statistics to quantify the perceived resilience capacities and challenges threatening farming systems; second, fitting Partial Least Square regressions to identify the main challenges affecting robustness, adaptability and transformability; and third, stochastically simulate challenging scenarios to predict the behavior of the three resilience capacities under different types of challenges. Resilience capacities perform in different manners when dealing with challenges. Adaptability and transformability seem to be more effective under socio-economic long-term pressures. Robustness performs poorly under challenges either in the short- or long-run and appears to be more effective against economic and environmental challenges. Institutional challenges are the main threats to resilience, especially when it comes to reduced subsidies, restricted access to land, and subsidies-induced competition. The paper's contribution consists of the empirical advances in understanding the resilience capacities and their ability to deal with different types of challenges, about which the literature offers little guidance. To this end, the paper proposes a quantitative methodological solution that is relevant considering the need for methodological progress towards resilience quantifications. Lastly, the paper may inform policymaking by b