Quantifying the value of adopting a post-rice legume crop to intensify mixed smallholder farms in Southeast Asia

•Value-Ag modelling used to quantify cowpea value in intensifying Laos mixed farms.•New legume generated higher income/lower risk due to better revenue, resilient cattle.•Actual value of intensifying farming system depends on rate and speed of adoption.•Key to analyse adoption drivers of innovation in clear/consistent/comparable manner•Better understanding of where value is to be gained from agricultural R4D investment. Traditional mixed smallholder farms in Southeast Asia are often constrained by low crop yields and limited nutritive fodder for animal production. Although positive economic outcomes result from intensification through the inclusion of improved fodder crops in farming systems, adoption often remains low. We use Value-Ag, a novel multi-tool approach that combines bio-economic modelling, risk analysis and predictions of adoption outcomes to assess the likely value of incorporating a legume crop into the traditional rice-cattle system in southern Laos. Compared with the baseline, the introduction of cowpea increased individual farm profit by an average 26% through improvements to cattle and rice production and sale of cowpea pods, while reducing losses in poor seasons, which reduced overall risk. Using the model, local experts predicted peak adoption of 54% in 6years by the farmer population targeted by the study. Combining these outputs within a system that evaluates both the production value and the likely adoption scenarios resulted in a more accurate estimation of the net value of the innovation at the project case-study level. This approach provided useful insights for improving farm profitability as well as reduced risk exposure from a legume crop innovation, although the system's success will ultimately depend on how well it reconciles productivity and sustainability given other potential environmental, institutional and price impacts. Overall, this case study provides an illustration of the potential to use Value-Ag to identify the factors that are likely to limit adoption and to out-scale these changes according to predicted adoption outcomes. Understanding bio-economic trade-offs and the drivers of adoption aids in the successful design and delivery of intensification options for smallholders by making the expected value of changes to the system more explicit.