Assessment of dyna clue model for prediction of spatio-temporal dynamics of urbanisation and green space in Jaipur district, Rajasthan (India)

Urbanisation in Jaipur, Rajasthan’s capital, has significantly impacted land use and land cover (LULC) over the past four decades. This study addresses the pressing issue of how rapid urban expansion affects green spaces and environmental balance. Utilizing satellite imagery and a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, LULC maps for 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023 were generated to analyze changes in land cover, including agriculture, barren land, built-up areas, vegetation, wasteland, fallow land, and water bodies. The Dyna-CLUE model, incorporating variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, and proximity to streams and roads, was employed to forecast LULC changes for 2033 and 2043. The findings reveal a marked increase in built-up areas at the expense of vegetative cover, driven by urbanization, infrastructural development, agricultural expansion, climate change, and policy decisions. With Kappa coefficients indicating high agreement between classified land cover and ground truth data (84–90% accuracy), the study projects continued urban growth and further decline in vegetation. This underscores the urgent need for sustainable land use planning and environmental conservation in Jaipur. Proposed strategies to address these issues include establishing ecological zones, enforcing green building regulations, promoting mixed-use development, and implementing a 15-min green space policy. These measures aim to enhance green space distribution and support Jaipur’s transition towards a greener urban environment.