Effect of meteorological parameters on population dynamics of brinjal shoot and fruit borer under central Punjab, India

Brinjal is an important indigenous vegetable crop. The brinjal shoot and fruit borer (BSFB) is one of the important crop pests and causes huge yield losses. An analysis of consecutive 5-year (2016-20) data of brinjal shoot and fruit borer infestations and meteorological data was conducted. The correlation coefficient analysis and regression based forewarning model for BSFB infestation were developed using data from three years viz., 2017, 2018, and 2020 and model was validated using data of 2016 and 2019. Infestation of BSFB showed its highest peak (38.7%) during 37 th SMW in the year 2017, while 2016 was the year having lowest peak BSFB infestation level (28.5%) during 36 th SMW. The correlation coefficient analysis showed a significant and positive relation of BSFB infestation with maximum (r = 0.59) and minimum temperatures (r = 0.46) and bright sunshine hours (r = 0.35) and a non-significant and positive correlation with evening relative humidity and rainfall. Morning relative humidity showed a significant and negative correlation (r=-041) with BSFB infestation. A regression model based on maximum and minimum temperatures, morning relative humidity, sunshine hours, and rainfall explained 55% of the variability in BSFB infestation. The model’s validation revealed that the relationship between observed and predicted BSFB infestation levels was highly significant, with an R 2 value of 0.90.