Modelling the influence of changing climate on the hydrology of high elevation catchments in NW Himalaya’s

In this study, RCM CORDEX data for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios have been utilized to examine the influence of changing climate on streamflow in the Lidder River basin in Kashmir. The linear intensity scaling method (LISM) embedded in the CMhyd tool is employed to reduce the disparity between simulated and observed climate variables. The SWAT model has been utilised to quantify the influence of changing climate on streamflow by simulating streamflow at three gauging stations SS, AS, and AKS, and for three time periods: early, mid-, and late century. Precipitation is expected to decrease by 11.98–14.59% for RCP 4.5 and 3.54–9.75% for RCP 8.5. An increasing trend was observed for the minimum and maximum temperature under both RCPs with a larger rise in RCP 8.5. The maximum temperature is projected to rise by 1.69–3.97 °C for RCP 4.5 and 1.87–7.02 °C for RCP 8.5. Likewise, an increase in the minimum temperature is expected by 1.79–3.87 °C for RCP 4.5 and 1.97–7.09 °C for RCP 8.5. The analysis depicted that the decrease in future streamflow is expected at all stations for both RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 with a higher rate of decrease in RCP 4.5, which is similar to expected trends in precipitation, indicating precipitation to govern the discharge substantially.