Nonnationals’ Fertility and the Great Recession in Italy: A Panel Analysis of Quantum and Tempo Responses

Fertility responses to economic downturns differ among subpopulations. Whether the relationship between employment and fertility varies according to ethnic origin, and if so, how, are issues that have yet to be sufficiently acknowledged in empirical studies. It is well known that economic conditions affect childbearing, but little is known about how macro-level nonnationals’ fertility was affected by the economic crisis. This study accounts for the effects by comparing the fertility responses of nonnationals with nationals (in terms of ‘quantum’ and ‘tempo’), while assessing the role of compositional changes on the decline of nonnationals’ fertility before, during and after the recession in Italy. It also determines whether and how responses to economic conditions differentially affected the fertility of nonnationals and nationals based on the stage of the recession. We built a regional-level panel dataset for the period 2006–2018 and estimated several ordinary least squares regression models with regional and calendar year fixed effects to control for unobserved regional and period characteristics. Results show that nonnationals’ fertility responses were procyclical and more responsive to male than female unemployment. Fertility behaviours also responded to compositional effects, such as the increase in the stock of nonnational women coming from Eastern Europe and mixed marriages. The procyclical effect was stronger after 2009, primarily for nonnationals. Another important finding is that the greatest reduction in fertility was linked to age-specific unemployment among nonnational women aged 20–24 and 25–29. Finally, fertility responses of nationals were weaker independently of the observed unemployment measures.