Nutrient modeling of an urban lake using best subset method

Lakes are functionally integral and biologically complex freshwater ecosystems which provide a vast array of ecosystem goods and services to society. Nowadays aquatic ecosystems are being used, misused and abused by diverse anthropogenic activities at an unprecedented rate. The management of lake water quality is usually directed to resolution of conflicts between maintenance of desirable water quality and human-induced degradation of aquatic environment. Nutrients play a decisive role in determining lake’s environmental state through regulation of its primary production. The present study on Saheb Bundh Lake located in Purulia District, West Bengal, India, was undertaken to assess the status of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) subject to certain anthropogenic activities, and to construct models using best subset method which could be adopted as a nutrient management tool. The water samples were monitored for different physicochemical parameters adopting standard methods. It was found that the set of variables including turbidity, temperature, pH, redox potential and total hardness has been championed as the best subset of water quality explaining the dynamics of total phosphorus concentration of freshwater Saheb Bundh Lake. The suite of factors comprising dissolved oxygen, pH, temperature, turbidity and total hardness has been proved as the best subset for estimating total nitrogen concentration. The models developed have been validated for total phosphorus and total nitrogen concentration. For total phosphorus, the model values were found to be very close to the measured values but the values varied widely for total nitrogen, championing the former as a very potent down-to-earth model.