A framework for identifying cross-border impacts of climate change on the energy sector

This paper presents a conceptual framework based on a supply chain approach and a statistical index to identify potential cross-border impacts on the current energy systems of the Nordic countries. Three examples illustrate the usability of the framework and highlight the significance of cross-border impacts for different segments of the energy sector. Additionally, the incorporation of cross-border impacts within Nordic climate assessments and adaptation policies are assessed by reviewing governmental reports and documents. Findings show that all the Nordic countries are vulnerable to various degrees to potential cross-border impacts, due to their energy sectors being highly globalised and interconnected. Nodes of vulnerability exist in both import and export supply chains, as well as through the global context. However, cross-border impacts are not yet properly included in Nordic climate assessments or energy strategies. This paper can assist policy makers and energy planners in making comprehensive vulnerability assessments that address both domestic and international climate risks.