Improving global coordination of volcanic hazard warnings in support of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: a four-step plan for aligning with international hydrometeorological arrangements

Systematic international cooperation has been a long-term challenge in volcanology. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 asks UN Member States to substantially improve multi-hazard early warning systems as one of its seven global targets, challenging us all to change our thinking in how we collaborate operationally. Volcanological and hydrometeorological agencies must cooperate to provide effective warnings for many intertwined hazards (e.g. volcanic ash transport and deposition forecasting, toxic gas forecasts, rainfall forecasting for potential lahars or volcanic dome collapses, tsunami warning arrangements, and the assessment of climate impacts of eruptions). An ongoing barrier remains the lack of international treaty level organisational arrangements for operational volcanology, in contrast to hydrometeorology. This lack of effective global coordination means that much of the excellent volcanological work activities around the world are being delivered in isolation due to the challenges of building local and regional initiatives into a global framework without a coherent plan. To address this, a series of steps could be undertaken, including (1) agreement between key countries of a game plan, (2) the formation of a coalition of UN agencies, (3) establishment of pilot projects, and (4) implementation of long-term arrangements. Success would encourage more sustainable funding and capacity building of volcanological observatories. Meeting this global challenge would result in more lives saved, less economic cost from volcanic hazards, and substantial progress towards multi-hazard arrangements consistent with the Sendai target. Conversely, without a systemic approach at the UN level, little progress will be possible.