Preenrollment Variables and Academic Performance as Predictors of Freshman Year Persistence, Early Withdrawal, and Stopout Behavior in an Urban, Nonresidential University

Multiple group discriminant analysis was employed to determine the utility of preenroliment traits and academic performance in dentifying freshman students who persisted, stopped out, or withdrew early from an urban, nonresidential university. An equation based on nine preenrollment variables significantly discriminated among the three groups and correctly identified 48.1% of an independent validation sample (p < .001 for the hypothesis that overall correct classification was a significant improvement on chance). The clearest separation based on preenroliment traits was between stopouts on the one hand and both persisters and withdrawals on the other. It was only after firstquarter academic performance was added to preenrollment traits that a sharp discrimination was found between persisters and early voluntary withdrawals.