Predictors of alcoholism in the Lundby study. II: Personality traits as risk factors for alcoholism

In 1957 all inhabitants (2,612) in a delimited geographical area, Lundby, were examined by a psychiatrist. Personality traits were scored for each individual. During the following 15 years 58 men became alcoholics (44 who had been 15 years or over in 1957). Among the men who in 1957 were scored 'subsolid in combination with symptom neurosis' the risk of becoming an alcoholic was increased 13.5 to 15.8 times. Protective against alcoholism was 'subvalidity in combination with psychosomatic symptoms'. The men with this combination had their risk decreased 12 times. The prediction of alcoholism depended on which factors and which combinations were used. With a sensitivity of 50% a specificity of almost 90% was reached; with a sensitivity of 60% specificities between 70% and 80% were reached.