A Simulation Study Concerning the Effect of Errors on the Establishment of Knowledge Spaces by Querying Experts

Adaptive procedures for the construction of knowledge spaces by querying experts recently have been developed (see for example Dowling, 1993 or Koppen, 1993). In these procedures an expert judges assertions on the set of underlying questions. The procedures minimize the number of such assertions necessary for the construction of a knowledge space by drawing inferences from the judgements already obtained. The question is what happens if an expert judges some of these assertions incorrectly? Incorrect inferences are drawn from the incorrect judgements, which then have an influence on the resulting knowledge space. A simulation study is presented which shows that even a small probability of errors by the expert can have a strong influence on the knowledge space resulting from the querying procedure.