Risk of developing radiogenic cancer following photon‐beam radiotherapy for Graves’ orbitopathy

Purpose The objective of this study was to estimate the probability for cancer development due to radiotherapy for Graves’ orbitopathy with 6 MV x rays. Methods Orbital irradiation was simulated with the MCNP code. The radiation dose received by 10 out‐of‐field organs having a strong disposition for carcinogenesis was calculated with Monte Carlo methods. These dose calculations were used to estimate the organ‐dependent lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for cancer induction in 30‐ and 50‐yr‐old males and females on the basis of the linear model suggested by the BEIR‐VII report. Differential dose–volume histograms derived from patients’ three‐dimensional (3D) radiotherapy plans were employed to determine the organ equivalent dose (OED) of the brain which was partly exposed to primary radiation. The OED and the relevant LAR for brain cancer development were assessed with the plateau, bell‐shaped and mechanistic models. The radiotherapy‐induced cancer risks were compared with the lifetime intrinsic risk (LIR) values for unexposed population. Results The radiation dose range to organs excluded from the treatment volume was 0.1–91.0 mGy for a target dose of 20 Gy. These peripheral organ doses increased the LIRs for cancer development of unexposed 30‐ and 50‐yr‐old males up to 1.0% and 0.2%, respectively. The corresponding elevations after radiotherapy of females were 2.0% and 0.4%. The use of nonlinear models gave an OED range of the brain of 482.0–562.5 mGy depending upon the model used for analysis and the patient's gender. The elevation of the LIR for developing brain malignancies after radiotherapy of 30‐yr‐old males and females reached to 13.3% and 16.6%, respectively. The corresponding increases after orbital irradiation at the age of 50 yr were 6.7% and 8.3%. Conclusions The level of the LIR increase attributable to radiation therapy for GO varied widely by the organ under examination and the age and gender of the exposed subject. This study provides the required data to quantify the elevation of these baseline cancer risks following orbital irradiation.