A Multi‐Step Model of Parkinson's Disease Pathogenesis

Background Parkinson's disease (PD) may result from the combined effect of multiple etiological factors. The relationship between disease incidence and age, as demonstrated in the cancer literature, can be used to model a multistep pathogenic process, potentially affording unique insights into disease development. Objectives We tested whether the observed incidence of PD is consistent with a multistep process, estimated the number of steps required and whether this varies with age, and examined drivers of sex differences in PD incidence. Methods Our validated probabilistic modeling process, based on medication prescribing, generated nationwide age‐ and sex‐adjusted PD incidence data spanning 2006–2017. Models of log(incidence) versus log(age) were compared using Bayes factors, to estimate (1) if a linear relationship was present (indicative of a multistep process); (2) the relationship's slope (one less than number of steps); (3) whether slope was lower at younger ages; and (4) whether slope or y‐intercept varied with sex. Results Across >15,000 incident cases of PD, there was a clear linear relationship between log(age) and log(incidence). Evidence was strongest for a model with an initial slope of 5.2 [3.8, 6.4], an inflexion point at age 45, and beyond this a slope of 6.8 [6.4, 7.2]. There was evidence for the intercept varying by sex, but no evidence for slope being sex‐dependent. Conclusions The age‐specific incidence of PD is consistent with a process that develops in multiple, discrete steps – on average six before age 45 and eight after. The model supports theories emphasizing the primacy of environmental factors in driving sex differences in PD incidence. © 2021 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society