Seasonal probability of precipitation forecasts using a weighted ensemble approach

Seasonal probability of precipitation forecasts using a weighted ensemble approach

A weighted ensemble (WE) method is revisited and employed to issue an improved seasonal probability of precipitation (POP) forecast. Nine boreal summer time seasonal precipitation hindcasts obtained from the APEC (Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation) Climate Center (APCC) multi‐model ensemble system a...

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Veröffentlicht in:International journal of climatology 2008-11, Vol.28 (14), p.1971-1976
Hauptverfasser: Shin, D. W., Kang, S.‐D., Cocke, S., Goo, T.‐Y., Kim, H.‐D.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
multi‐model
probabilistic forecast
seasonal precipitation
weighted ensemble
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Zusammenfassung:A weighted ensemble (WE) method is revisited and employed to issue an improved seasonal probability of precipitation (POP) forecast. Nine boreal summer time seasonal precipitation hindcasts obtained from the APEC (Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation) Climate Center (APCC) multi‐model ensemble system are used to assess the suitability of the WE approach for seasonal POP predictions. Owing to its performance‐based selective nature for assigning weights, the WE method produced marginally superior seasonal POP forecasts compared to the conventional approach. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
ISSN:0899-8418
1097-0088
DOI:10.1002/joc.1690