Effect of projected changes in winter streamflow on stream turbidity, Esopus Creek watershed in New York, USA

This study focuses on the impact of changes in winter streamflow on in‐stream turbidity in the Esopus Creek watershed, one of the New York City water supply watersheds. Projected changes in daily precipitation and air temperature from a suite of five global climate models and three emission scenarios for future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 were downscaled for the study region. The simulated climate scenarios were used to project future streamflows using the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions – Variable Source Area watershed model. Seasonal turbidity rating curves based on measured historical streamflow and stream turbidity were used in combination with the simulated streamflow for generating future stream turbidity scenarios. Results indicate an increase in future ambient stream turbidity from November to March and a decrease during April. These results are the effects of increased winter rainfall, reduced snowfall, and a shift to early timing of spring snowmelt runoff, causing an increase in streamflow during early winter. It also suggests a reduction in the traditional peak streamflow around April that is expected to occur in this region. As a result, our models simulate a consistent increase in the low to medium percentile range of turbidity values associated with low to medium range of streamflows and no apparent change in high‐percentile turbidity values associated with high streamflows. Our results may be applicable in regions where snowmelt runoff is an important process and turbidity caused by the suspension of fine clay particles is a water quality concern. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.