Prognosen in der chemischen Technik

Forecasts in the chemical industry. Forecasts of the energy demand in the Federal Republic of Germany for 1985 predicted figures which were, in some cases, more than 100% higher than the actual consumption figures, due among other things to an unforeseen decrease in specific energy consumption, e. g. in the chemical industry to about half of that in 1960. Since 1973 the overall energy consumption in the chemical industry has remained almost unchanged at some 15 million t/year coal equivalents in spite of increased production. In future forecasts, these possible divergences between economic growth and energy consumption will have to be given far greater attention. In 1977/1978 forecast, figures were calculated for the material flow from the raw material to the end products in selected fields in the chemical industry by means of a simulation model. Some of these forecasts show satisfactory agreement, while some of them deviate to a greater extent from the actual production figures, partly due to unexpected drastic changes in import quotas for some basic chemicals and intermediates.