A simulation model to assess emission reduction policies in tourism transport: Case study of the Geiranger fjord UNESCO world heritage site in Norway

Tourism transport may lead to significant air emissions and congestion problems on road networks. This is particularly troublesome for nature-based tourism destinations, as they often are in rural areas with low transportation capacities and vulnerable nature. Tourism transport systems are poorly understood, especially multi-modal systems with land and sea dynamics. In this article, we propose a multi-modal transport model that integrates traffic both at land and sea generated by tourism. The model was built on data from an in-situ questionnaire and validated with traffic counts and video recordings for the Geiranger fjord UNESCO world heritage site in Norway. Following a parliament decision to eliminate emissions from sea traffic, four emission reduction scenarios were explored. Results show that cruise-generated tourist buses may significantly contribute to air emissions and the formation of road congestion and emphasize the necessity of having a holistic approach in analyzing consequences of emission reduction policies for tourism transport. The model may be used in transportation planning and policymaking to assess alternative pathways to sustainable tourism transport.