Three Models Away from The Bomb: Explaining Norwegian Disengagement from the Nuclear Ban Process

In 2013, Norway hosted a conference in Oslo on the “humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons”which started the process leading to the adaption of Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in 2017. Norway did not participate in the treaty negotiations, nor has it signed or ratified the treaty. The Norwegian disengagement that took place seems puzzling, as one would expect Norway to see their own initiative through, especially as it seemingly was successful. To answer the question, this thesis therefore adapts a framework presented by Scott Sagan to fit the study of disarmament. The core theoretical assumptions of the Security Model, the Domestic Politics Model and Norms Model are kept, but the dependent variable is changed. The three models all offer plausible explanations for what caused Norwegian disengagement,and there are then tested on the available data.The first model focuses on the external threat level, the second on Norwegian party-politics and the third on the boundaries of a Norwegian disarmament norm. The empirical analysis is conducted by first establishing correlation between the theorized independent and dependent variable.Then, the process is traced three times to make a robust causal argument. The data used in this thesis are records of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs(MFA) and the Storting and news articles. Additionally, six elite interviews with involved officials were conducted. This thesis concludes that the Norm Model has the most explanatory power, as it fits with the sequencing of events and is consistent with the language used by Norwegian officials, both domestically and internationally. The Security Model explains well how the disengagement accelerated after the Russian annexation of Crimea and following increased NATO-dependency. Finally, while the Domestic Politics Model captures the disagreement taking place in parliament, this is not found to have influenced the outcome.