Polar Cap Patch Prediction in the Expanding Contracting Polar Cap Paradigm

Space weather can cause serious disturbances of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) used for positioning and navigation purposes. This paper describes a new method to forecast space weather disturbances on GNSS at high latitudes, in which we describe the formation and propagation of polar cap patches and predict their arrival at the nightside auroral oval. The space weather prediction model builds on the expanding/contracting polar cap (ECPC) paradigm and total electron content (TEC) observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) network. The input parameter is satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field at the first Lagrange point. To validate our prediction model, we perform a case study in which we compare the results from our prediction model to observations from the GPS TEC data from the MIT's Madrigal database, convection data from Super Dual Auroral radar network, and scintillation data from Svalbard. Our results show that the ECPC paradigm describes the polar cap patch motion well and can be used to predict scintillations of GPS signals at high latitudes. Key Points We describe a model for patch generation and transport across the polar cap Our model results are in agreement with ground‐based patch observations The method described is an important step toward physics based space weather forecast