Optimizing energy production systems under uncertainty

Electricity infrastructure has become a critical element of modern industrial society. In order to model and analyse this infrastructure, identify weaknesses, and optimize performance, one needs to take into account its distributed nature. Rather than modelling a single system, energy production and distribution systems consists of many more or less autonomous subsystems working together and trading with each other. Analytical models could perhaps be used to describe a single subsystem. However the complexity related to the interactions between the subsystems soon becomes unmanageable. Even establishing a simulation model for such phenomenons is a non-trivial task, especially if the model is required to be easily scaleable. In this paper we consider the problem of optimizing a simplified energy system with respect to supply stability. This is done using both deterministic methods and Monte Carlo methods. The system is broken into smaller units. These units may trade energy between them in order to maintain a stable supply covering the demand. An important element in the model is the ability to store energy within the unit. For some units, e.g., hydroelectric power plants, the energy can be easily stored in the form of a water reservoir. For other units, like wind power plants, storing energy is usually not feasible. By using an object oriented software framework, we can compare different production units, and study how these can interact in order to facilitate a stable total production. This is a Manuscript of a book chapter published by Routledge in Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016 (Glasgow, Scotland, 25-29 September 2016) on 13.9.2017, available online: http://www.routledge.com/9781138029972.