Welfare state evaluations, normative expectations, and political trust: longitudinal evidence from Germany and Norway

The expectancy-disconfirmation model (EDM) explains satisfaction with public services as a combination of service expectations and perceived performance. We study how satisfaction in turn affects political trust. We mimic the EDM logic by assessing interactions with political-ideological ‘normative expectations’. Three-wave panel surveys from Germany and Norway contain general and specific measures of satisfaction. Multilevel models show robust between-, and multiple instances of within-individual, associations between satisfaction and trust. Interactions with normative expectations are mostly absent, however. Overall, the variables highlighted by the EDM seem to affect generalized political trust. But the expectancy-disconfirmation logic may not repeat itself at this general political level.