Оценка влияния перехода к риск-ориентированному регулированию учреждений высшего образования

Introduction. The study examines the problem of building an effective quality management system for education to improve its quality by changing the mechanisms of quality assurance and surveillance. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of the transition to a risk-based regulation in higher education institutions. Materials and Methods. The study was conducted using the methodology of mathematical modeling, namely, simulation models of certain types of state quality management and surveillance in the field of higher education: licensing, licensing management, quality assurance mechanisms and state supervision. Modeling was carried out using the Anylogic software. The models were calibrated on the basis of statistical data from the Federal State Information System ‘Unified Register of Inspections’: a total of 1,542 inspections for four types of assessment from 2014 to 2019. The main indicators to be evaluated were the duration of assessment and supervisory measures for each type of control, as well as expenses for their implementation. Results. The study reveals that the transition to risk-based regulation in the field of higher education is accompanied by significant positive changes - a reduction in the load both in terms of the assessment duration and costs of its implementation. It is shown that for a more accurate assessment of these effects, it is necessary to take into account the differences in the structure and quantitative characteristics of processes of different types of control. The quantity of the effects is determined by the choice of characteristics of the risk-based approach model: the proportion of high-risk objects and the probability of detecting violations as a result of checking them. The proposed methodology developed by the authors can be used to make management decisions by comparing models of quality management and surveillance of universities. Conclusions. The research findings empirically confirmed the need to move from the current system of quality management in the field of higher education to a risk-based regulation. Adopting this approach will reduce the burden both on the subject of control - the Federal Service for Supervision in Education and Science, and on the objects - higher education institutions.