Makroekonomické scenáre vývoja ekonomiky Slovenskej republiky do roku 2008

Macroeconomic position of the Slovak Republic (SR) in comparison to the European Union (EU) and/or OECD countries (or even 10 candidate countries) is not satisfactory. The Slovak economy needs recovery and serious restructuring. Integration to the EU may bring higher inflow of foreign capital, which is necessary for substantial improvement of the Slovak economy. In the article, macroeconomic development of Slovakia is described by two alternative scenarios which have been projected up to 2008. These projections have been elaborated as some combinations of experts estimates and simulations with the econometric macromodel of the SR, deve- loped by the authors. The projections start from the supposed development of relevant external factors, which include, first, the world trade, inflow of foreign capital and exchange rates. Then, the major results of model projections up to 2008 are presented. They are concentrated to growth rates of GDP, labor productivity, consumption of households, gross fixed capital formation, exports, imports, inflation, nominal and real wages, etc. Also, projec-tions of employment and unemployment, trade balance and current account are pre-sented as well. In the separate chapter, real and nominal convergence of the Slovak economy to the EU average is examined and projected. According to the scenario No. 2 (with assump-tion that the SR may join the EU by 2004) the Slovak per capita GDP in 2008 may reach 55.5 per cent of the EU average, and the comparative price level may reach 49.7 per cent. Moreover, when we take into consideration the integration of 10 candidate countries to the EU, the new EU average will be lower by about 9 per cent against the current EU-15. Thus, in comparison to the extended EU-25 the macroeconomic position of the SR in 2008 may be somewhat better: i. e. reaching with respect to the EU-25 average about 61 per cent of per capita GDP and 52 per cent of comparative price level. At the same time, i. e. between 2001 and 2008, the unemployment rate in the SR may be reduced from 19.2 per cent to about 15.4 per cent, and the current account defi-cit from 8.8 per cent of GDP to 3.2 per cent. From the overall evaluation of our model projections it can be derived that entering the EU by 2004 would be the best alternative for Slovak economy.