Poland and the Euro Zone: Three Possible Scenarios and Their Consequences

The Euro zone has undergone profound institutional changes since the occurrence of its 2010 crisis. The EU countries which, due to different reasons, have not entered to the EMU, must rethink their calculus. Standard economic analysis should be now supplemented with political-institutional dimension. Under these circumstances the article sketches three possible scenarios for Poland, which should be taken into account by decision-makers: (a) fast accession to the euro zone. (b) laggard ‘fence sitting’, and (c) ‘shutting the door’. Each of them raises important economic and politico-institutional consequences. The text argues that in overall assessment, the longer the accession to the euro area is delayed, the stronger the risk of Poland’s peripherization in the EU. Therefore the comprehensive analysis of costs and benefits under new circumstances should be done fast.