Odlučivanje u uslovima rizika i teorija izgleda

The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative). The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness) depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame). It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.