Socio-economic Impacts of Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Scenarios in Slovakia

The aim of this paper is to assess the expected socio-economic impacts of various scenarios of pandemic influenza mitigation on the economy and mor-tality for Slovakia. Compared to similar past studies (e.g. Van Genugten et al. (2003)), our approach bears a significant difference. Whereas those studies work from the very beginning with the expected values of the data, we have treated the data as well as the model parameters as random variables. Results in the form of probability distributions and their characteristics (expected values and tolerance intervals) were obtained by stochastic Monte Carlo simulations of random impacts on 5,400,000 inhabitants of Slovakia. Six scenarios of pandemia mitigation have been analyzed. Total costs of medical treatment, the number of casualties as well as social costs with casualties included were compared.